Wherein yours truly gives the lowdown on who might be going onto Saturday, whose dreams end on Thursday, and how happy/pissed off I am about it.
A disclaimer: This is a guess based on reports, my impressions of the song, and is most likely heavily coloured by the fact that I'm in New York while all the fun is in Athens. Read it with a view to laugh.
- Armenia: The Unibrower and his unique approach to English pronunciation will not make it. Probably won't even get remotely close when the votes are revealed.
- Bulgaria: No, but will outdo Caffe.
- Slovenia: Jazz Hands won't make it, it'll be close but no. Slovenia will be in both the Qualifier and Final next year though.
- Andorra: As much as I love this song--and I really do, to the point that if I ever get the chance to do so, I'd employ it as a theme song for a film or TV show, Andorra will continue to be stuck in the Qualifier. (Conspiracy theory: There is one pissed off or deranged choreographer that RTVA continues to employ for their entries. Dump her or him and watch Andorra go to the Final. Why else would great songs be so poorly received?)
- Belarus: Po just might make it, but Belarus will be back in the Qualifier in 2008.
- Albania: The reports from Athens aren't giving The Twink a shot, but I think he'll get through if they emphasise his inoffensive sex appeal or the comedy of seeing him dance with a group of overweight men in folk costumes.
- Belgium: Won't make it. The reports say she's sounding horrible, and this isn't that hard of a song to muck up. 2 to 1 the video will be playing in Splash come August though.
- Ireland: They keep on saying the dirge will make it based on the songs preceding it. I don't think so. It'll be on the cusp of making it though.
- Cyprus: No. Just no.
- Monaco: The reports have this in the acrid category. I think it'll go through for these two reasons: 1) it's the first upbeat song after two ballads; and 2) If you're going to be a disaster, then go all out and it appears that they are. (Plus, the disaster known as Taylor is about to win American Idol, so lord knows how screwy the world of musical shows with televoting are these days.)
- Macedonia: They're going through. The Macedonian song always goes through to the Final. It never stays there, but it always goes through. Elenina Sky need only worry about possible copyright infringement.
- Poland: Punch Bowl Hair and the Princesses will go through. The song is just that cloying.
- Russia: All the reports say that The Mullet Twink and his weird approximation of the English language is going down a storm. I don't see it personally, but I'll give him a 50/50 shot.
- Turkey: Hell yes, she's going through. She's not going to win the Qualifier nor the Final, but she's going through and Turkey will be in the Final next year.
- Ukraine: The reports say that the Permanent Smile Known As Tina Karol (or perhaps just Karola) is knocking people dead with her performance as opposed to the song itself. Frankly, I don't know why they changed the song and lyrics from the camptastic "I'm Your Queen," but I see her going through, although performing after Turkey will make it close.
- Finland: All the reports have lost their ever-loving minds over Gwar-goes-to-Eurovision. It's distinctive as hell and they're going through, if not winning the Qualifier easily. Helsinki 2007 looks probable.
- Netherlands: I saw Blaundabanda (my nickname for Tremble) do a rehearsal today on "ESC TV." They were weak and chaotic. Just get the writers from "Hemel En Aarde" back and do an internal selection. Unlike Monaco, this song isn't going to be a camp disaster, and that's where the Monegasques have an edge.
- Lithuania: No, you're aren't the winners. In fact, you might not even get remotely near qualifying. Honestly, LRTV, send Saules Kilosas and then you'll escape the Qualifier.
- Portugal: The reports say they won't, I say they might get through. Some advice for RTP: Send a song that the Portugese public likes. Something that is like what one would hear on Portugese radio. Either that--and I know this is a controversial and highly unlikely option--or recruit a semi-famous Brasilian singer or band and go all Katrina and The Waves on the rest of Europe next year. A bucketload of Samba drums is all you need.
- Sweden: So Carola is now saying she was unfairly misquoted and scarred with the Scarlet H for Homophobe. Doesn't change the fact that this is rather boring song and performance...even in Swedish. So don't go courting the gay vote, m'dear. Oh yes, Carola will sail through to the Final, but Amina will have her long-awaited revenge come Saturday.
- Estonia: See you next year, Carola Jr. If "Invincible" is boring, then lord knows that "Through My Window" is practically comatose by comparison. Serves them right for not going for "Issendale."
- Bosnia & Herzegovina: The reports are mixed. Some say it's probably going to go through, others say it'll get close but not make it. I'm with the latter. That said, HMH's ballad is better than La Kennedy's, but to me that's like saying this arsenic is better than that other one.
- Iceland: Another one with mixed reports. If she goes unabashedly trashy, then yes. If she doesn't camp it up, then no.
So, in review:
To the Final
- Monaco
- Poland
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- Finland
- Sweden
- Macedonia
Lucky sods fighting for the remaining 3 slots left:
- Belarus
- Albania
- Belgium
- Russia
- Portugal
- Iceland
And I think it's going to be a threeway deathmatch between Belgium, Portugal, and Belarus.
Everybody else:
- Screwed.
Update: Well, 6 out of 10 isn't that bad. (Please don't kill me, La Ryan.)
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