Thursday, March 24, 2005

A modest proposal for the airline industry

As I see it, the main problems with the US airlines these days is that they are too bsy trying to be all things to everyone. They want to be your carrier all the way from Altoona to Shanghai. This is really not a terribly smart business idea. The solution? Why don't we just nationalise the major airlines? I'm not talking about creating one huge gigantic state carrier, but rather several regional carriers who operate mostly 500 mile flights with several trunk routes. (Sort of along the lines of the telephone companies before deregulation--that hideous word.)

Believe it or not, I'm preaching consolidation (albeit the kinder government enforced kind).

The Northeast: Merge US Airways along with American's routes out of New York and Boston, United's hub at Dulles, and Continental's fortress Newark. The resulting airline (let's just call it "Northeast") would be able to provide decent air service to smaller towns (such as the aforementioned Altoona and Lynchburg, Virginia...geographically I'm lumping in Virginia with the Northeast, although culturally it definitely isn't) as well as operate the still lucrative shuttle. The possibility also exists that the Northeast region could be split in half: One serving New England (former Continental/United New York), another serving Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, West Virginia, and Virginia (former US Airways).

The Southeast: Keep Atlanta as a major hub. It's always been a transit point and it's a good one (like Chicago). As for Miami, the resulting airline "Southeast" would also take over United and American's hubs there as well as US Airways's fortress Charlotte. The end result would have "Southeast" operating a major hub in Atlanta, and two smaller hubs in Charlotte and Miami. Northwest's Memphis hub would be eliminated.

The Midwest: Kick American out and leave O'Hare to the new United (henceforth retitled "Midwest"). Eliminate Continental's Cleveland hub, as well as Delta's Cincinnati hub (or turn it purely into a regional jet hub), and absorb Northwest's hub in Cleveland. This would leave "Midwest" with one gigantic (but necessary) hub at O'Hare, one smaller hub in Detroit (to serve Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana), and possible small regional jet hub in Cincinnati to complement the Detroit hub.

The Great Plains: The fact of the matter is that Northwest has a near monopoly on air service from Minnesota to Montana. This would be left as is, but fares would be kept at a more modest and practical level due to subsidies. (The Great Plains is one of the most sparsely populated places in the continental United States, if there weren't subsidies, then it's likely there would be no service to 90% of the towns shown on the map, which in turn would lead to economic stagnation.) This airline would continue to operate Northwest's hub in Minneapolis as well as take over United's hub in Denver. (It makes only vague geographical sense for someone flying from Montana to Kansas to change planes in Minnesota.)

The Southwest: Merge American, America West, and Continental, but keep their hubs. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Houston are some of the largest cities in the country. Their respective populations are high enough to justify massive amounts of nonstop air service. Virtually no change save for combining resources and eliminating overlap.

The West: Here things get a bit tricky. United and American have a pretty massive presence in Los Angeles and San Francisco (well, United does at least), while Alaska seems to rule the Northwest as well as its namesake state, and there's Delta's odd hubs in Portland and Salt Lake City. Split Alaska Airlines into a new "Alaska" (operating solely out of Anchorage and focused mostly on flying to, from, and inside Alaska) and a new "Northwest" (operating out of Seattle and serving Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Northern California). Delta's hub in Portland would be eliminated. Separate from "Northwest" would be a new air carrier formed from United's and American's hubs in San Francisco and Los Angeles. This airline ("Western") would operate equally major hubs in both cities as well as take over a significantly smaller Salt Lake City hub that served smaller cities in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, and Nevada.

Hawaii: Merge Hawaiian and Aloha. It's quite surprising that Hawaii can support two airlines. (Not meant as a snub, just referring to the amount of people residing there.)

Guam: Keep Continental Micronesia as is.

Now what about airlines such as Frontier, Midwest Airlines, Southwest, JetBlue, etc.? These should remain private. The fact of the matter is that monopolies tend to get complacent, and they need a check to remain competitive. My argument for consolidation and nationalisation is that there is too much competition, not that it needs to be eliminated. These airlines provide lower cost alternatives and are not trying to be major carriers. If anything, having smaller "major" carriers levels the playing field by making them just as competitive.

Why nationalise the majors? I believe that there is a necessity for air service and that some sort of government intervention (in this case taking over and operating) is critical for not cutting off entire towns (or even states) from the US air system. We live essentially in a plane and car society (if Amtrak was given fair treatment by the government, then you could include trains outside of the Northeast and Midwest). It is the role of the government to make sure that where you live isn't a hidrance. A major component of that is making sure that you, your friends, family, company, clients, etc. can travel without it being a draconian experience. I don't believe you can trust a private enterprise to do that, since their focus is purely on profits.

No comments: